United Press International
- U.S. Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign to raise black voter registration and turnout may or may not help him dent the Republican hold on the South, analysts say.
If 95 percent of black voters support Obama in November, in line with a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, he could take Florida if he increases black turnout by 23 percent over 2004 figures, The Washington Post (NYSE:WPO) reported Monday. Increasing black voting percentages could translate into wins in Ohio and Nevada.
The push raised Democrats’ hopes of retaking Southern states with large black populations where turnout has been low among all voters. Obama has said previously he could compete in states such as Mississippi by increasing black turnout by 30 percent.
Several political scientists say that, with the exception of Virginia and Florida, the Democrats’ deficit in the South is too large for Obama to overcome with a huge black turnout alone. He needs to make strides in the performance of past Democratic campaigns among white Southerners as well.
“There’s going to be a record number of African-Americans turning out,” said Thomas Schaller, a political scientist at the University of Maryland. “But the question is whether it will make any difference in these states where Republicans have been winning by double-digit margins.”
